Sources of Data
So, where did AAP get it seats from?
- AAP took 17 seats from Congress
- AAP took 11 seats from BJP
Percentage-wise BJP lost slightly more of its current seats (11/24 = 45.8%) to AAP than Congress (17/41 = 41.46%).
So, where did BJP gain its seats from?
- BJP took 17 seats from Congress
What happened in those 17 seats? A look at the number of votes different candidates got in these seats say the following.
- AAP is at the 2nd place in terms of number of votes in 11 of the 17 seats.
- AAP+Congress votes are higher than BJP votes in all these 17 seats.
- In 8 of these seats, its number of votes is closer to that of the winning party than Congress.
- In none of the 17 seats is the number of votes AAP got insignificant. Even when they are at 3rd place the long tail (of four and three-digit vote counts) starts after them.
- AAP took seats from both Congress and BJP. So, its rise is not purely a anti-incumbency issue for Congress.
- But that doesn’t mean that anti-incumbency for Congress is non-existent or that it didn’t help AAP. It helped AAP as well as BJP.
- Only BJP’s help might also have come indirectly via AAP, and not on its own merits🙂 Some Congress voters went to AAP in these constituencies, but not enough and BJP won in the process, because of division of votes. So, despite being the largest winning party, BJP should gloat a little less about Delhi and be happy with other states.
Holy cow! Yes, I am writing about politics. And guess what😀 I will write at least one more post. Not with numbers, but with my opinion🙂
P. S. I have tabulated most of the data myself. Although I have double-checked, but if someone finds any inaccuracies, please let me know.