Who did AAP snatch the seats from? And BJP?

Sources of Data

Wikipedia

Election Commission

So, where did AAP get it seats from?

  • AAP took 17 seats from Congress
  • AAP took 11 seats from BJP

Percentage-wise BJP lost slightly more of its current seats (11/24 = 45.8%) to AAP than Congress (17/41 = 41.46%).

So, where did BJP gain its seats from?

  • BJP took 17 seats from Congress

What happened in those 17 seats? A look at the number of votes different candidates got in these seats say the following.

  • AAP is at the 2nd place in terms of number of votes in 11 of the 17 seats.
  • AAP+Congress votes are higher than BJP votes in all these 17 seats.
  • In 8 of these seats, its number of votes is closer to that of the winning party than Congress.
  • In none of the 17 seats is the number of votes AAP got insignificant. Even when they are at 3rd place the long tail (of four and three-digit vote counts) starts after them.

Conclusion

  • AAP took seats from both Congress and BJP. So, its rise is not purely a anti-incumbency issue for Congress.
  • But that doesn’t mean that anti-incumbency for Congress is non-existent or that it didn’t help AAP. It helped AAP as well as BJP.
  • Only BJP’s help might also have come indirectly via AAP, and not on its own merits🙂 Some Congress voters went to AAP in these constituencies, but not enough and BJP won in the process, because of division of votes. So, despite being the largest winning party, BJP should gloat a little less about Delhi and be happy with other states.

Holy cow! Yes, I am writing about politics. And guess what😀 I will write at least one more post. Not with numbers, but with my opinion🙂

P. S. I have tabulated most of the data myself. Although I have double-checked, but if someone finds any inaccuracies, please let me know.

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About Jaya

Jaya Jha is an entrepreneur, a techie, a writer and a poet. She was born and brought up in various towns of Bihar and Jharkhand. A graduate of IIT Kanpur and IIM Lucknow, she realized early on that the corporate world was not her cup of tea. In 2008, she started Pothi.com, one of the first print-on-demand publishing platform in India. She currently lives in Bangalore and divides her time between writing and working on her company's latest product InstaScribe (http://instascribe.com) with a vision to make it the best e-book creation tool. Blog: https://jayajha.wordpress.com Twitter: @jayajha Facebook: http://facebook.com/MovingOnTheBook

4 thoughts on “Who did AAP snatch the seats from? And BJP?

  1. writer has conveniently forgotten that there would be a local level anti incumbency against the sitting MLA along with sate level. This is true everywhere. In MP 10 of the 30 ministers lost the seat.

    • Sure. And of course AAP is a beneficiary of anti-incumbency. It doesn’t change the conclusion that BJP’s rise is still not on its own merit.

  2. Pingback: Delhi Election 2013: Best thing that has happened to congress so far. | My Journey so far....

  3. Unconditional Support ?

    To form a government in Delhi , both BJP and Congress have offered AAP , an Unconditional Support

    Arvind Kejriwal is asking ,

    ” For how long ? 3 weeks or 3 months ? ”

    He cannot forget what those parties did to destroy the ” India Against Corruption ” movement in the Ramlila grounds in 2011

    So he has asked Sonia Gandhi and Rajnath Singh ,

    ” Forget about ‘ giving ‘ un-asked for unconditional support

    But since you have been so magnanimous , here are my 18 conditions for
    ‘ taking ‘ your support

    Do you accept these conditions ? ”

    Sonia and Rajnath are silent !

    They don’t like being exposed !

    A Congress spokesman even said on TV channel last evening ,

    ” Most of what AAP proposes , require mere administrative decisions .
    Our support does not come in picture ”

    A BJP stalwart said,

    ” How can there be any government without a strong opposition ?
    Of course , we will oppose you whenever we disagree with you .
    How can we tell you now , which of your 18 conditions , we will
    oppose – and when ?
    When time comes , we will get a signal from our high command ”

    As Arvind knows too well , both BJP and Congress will simply wait for the very first opportunity to pull the rug from under the feet of AAP

    Irrespective of who introduces a ” No – Confidence ” motion in Delhi Assembly , each will give the other , an ” Unconditional Support ” !

    It is a pity , no TV anchor is asking them :

    Madam / Sir ,

    Does your unconditional support mean , you will decide ,

    > Who will introduce a no-confidence motion and when ?
    > Who will ask the LG , to recommend President’s Rule and when ?
    > Who will take the credit to discredit AAP , and when ?
    > Who will brag to Delhi-ites, ” We had told you AAP cannot perform ” ?

    But people of Delhi are asking following questions ( no doubt inconvenient to BJP / Congress ) ,

    > If unconditional support only means , mere postponement of the re-
    poll , why not get over with it , right now ?
    > What is game-plan of Congress / BJP ?
    > How can we put an end to this absurdity called ” Support ” ?
    > Isn’t it time to give 50 seats to AAP in re-poll ?

    * hemen parekh ( 15 Dec 2013 / Mumbai )

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